Media 7 years later.
7 years ago when I joined MTV International to help launch mtv.ca, it felt inevitable that the traditional cable & broadcast model would be classically disrupted by a collection of internet companies. I watched as Execs's at MTV digital desperately watched Jamba, Myspace and youtube slip out of their hands (note to future self, when you start asking your early 20 something employes whether or not a site is cool, and if its work millions, its time to retire) . Watched how they made an entire version of mtv.com out of flash, and sat helplessly as visits to their sites plummeted (SEO hadn't made it to the executive office's yet). However, most importantly, their was an overwhelming feeling that somehow MTV was loosing the cool war, loosing the kids and teenage culture , and that the cable model its self would be doomed because of this. Exec's who had started with MTV in 80's and 90's basically had an hegemony over broadcasting the trend of their decades, could not understand why we couldn't still do this, by just re-create the products that kids where using and watched in confusion as their copy cat attempts, Flux, Overdrive, URGE (remember it was a Microsoft/MTV - iTunes application) seemed to repulse the very demographic they where courting - and made them even more uncool. Even when they were forced to put all their Videos online long and short form and make very little money from it, youtube was still cooler and now had even more music videos, their was a sense that perhaps MTV and the cable model wouldn't make it out of the decade. (I was low in the totem pole, and didn't see "media" or "advertising" as a career yet, just a job, so i was merrily an on looker to this confusion . I changed Jobs somewhere after Tom Freston was kicked out, myspace was sold to New Corp and the marketers where asked to start pulling all the videos they posted to youtube.)
What i find amazing 6 years later, is that if you ask me now, if the broadcast and cable model is doomed due to the internet, my reaction is the emphatic "not anytime soon". So what's the difference? Why not cataclysmic shift? Other media forms TV and books, music, magazines and newspapers seem to be on the decline? Whats the deal with TV? While the size of video delivery over internet is large and costly as well as picture quality not being stable, I'm convinced that the true difference is that cable companies own the pipes and at least a share of the content rights, so they simply will not let this happen unless the control it. In addition, good content remains expensive to produce and only piracy has been able to provide a price point that users seem to like in mass.
All these trends are magnified internationally. Unlike magazines, books and othe media formats, Media companies own the content and distribution networks. Some examples are Sky in Asia and Europe, Starhub in SEA, Foxtel in Australia, NTC in japan. Itunes, youtube or netflix has done little to change this and all exec's are aware of their dangers and limit their contents availability on these platform. Internationally you can feel this with metered broadband in many countries (Australia!) and with MSO colluding as content monopolies (Sky in Europe). I also, feel that in the states, to stop the spread of netflix, or netflix-like services, Cable companies will inevitably use bandwidth caps to curb internet video use and force content companies to pay for video use on their pipes. In the short-term, this business model is safe. Even if content and technology companies find a way to encode video to deliver online better and integrate youtube, netflix and everything into the TV experience, MSO can still control use, your costs and what content you can see (i feel this was the strategic reason that Comcast bought NBC, to control the distribution of content.) HD only adds to cable's strong position since HD remains very hard to stream online.
Even in countries like Japan or Korean, who are in the fore front of digital, it's even worse, there are a few select companies that own so much of the entire market (for example Dentsu in Japan and NHN in Korea) so though they have IPTV and internet TV its still under Cable operators.
Though i tell this to exc's, I've always added the warning: Newspapers thought the web was all upside in 2001 and they were safe- It was only in 2007 did they realize that they where in trouble and where fighting for their corp lives. So though I'm a bit blue i still laugh a bit when 10 year plans are handed to me to review for a "Digital" perspective. Its only when we think we are safe, does technology usually disrupt our business to point where we can never go back to the old ways again.
For my money i feel the telecoms and MSO are on a collision corse, at the end of the day they both push and manage bits, that's all. The only current issues around scale, regions and investment are purely technical. From a business perspective and device perspective i don't care if i get my internet from ATT or Comcast. The difference between my iphone and my computer vanished a long time ago, the difference between my TV and my iphone is ripe to be destroyed as well.